feat(demand): market rent estimate (asking vs. fair) + pre-market expected price

- lib/rentEstimate: deterministic market estimate from Standort-Intelligence (median rent benchmark + vacancy/trend) → fair rent, verdict BELOW/AT/ABOVE, deltaPct, rationale; suggestFutureRent indexes today's price by city rent trend
- MarketPricePanel in MatchDetail: asking vs. fair market rent + verdict badge + rationale; shows pre-market expected price (heute → erwartet)
- unit.expectedRentPerSqm: future pre-market price; scorer prefers it over current rent for FUTURE_AVAILABILITY
- UnitStructurePanel editor: expected-price field (with indexed suggestion) shown for pre-market-released units
- tests: rentEstimate verdict thresholds + future-rent indexing

Note: rent estimate is a deterministic market-data calc (not an LLM) — honest & testable; can be routed through IAIService later if a real model is wanted.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/components/match-detail/MarketPricePanel.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,70 @@
+import { Box, Chip, Paper, Typography } from '@mui/material'
+import { TrendingUp } from 'lucide-react'
+import { estimateMarketRent, type RentVerdict } from '../../lib/rentEstimate'
+import { DS_TEXT, DS_SURFACE, DS_BORDER } from '../../lib/ds'
+
+const VERDICT_META: Record<RentVerdict, { label: string; bg: string; border: string; fg: string }> = {
+  BELOW: { label: 'Unter Markt', bg: DS_SURFACE.success.bg, border: DS_SURFACE.success.border, fg: DS_TEXT.success },
+  AT:    { label: 'Marktkonform', bg: DS_SURFACE.blue.bg,    border: DS_SURFACE.blue.border,    fg: DS_TEXT.signalDark },
+  ABOVE: { label: 'Über Markt',   bg: DS_SURFACE.warning.bg,  border: DS_SURFACE.warning.border, fg: DS_TEXT.warning },
+}
+
+interface Props {
+  city: string
+  assetType: string
+  askingRentPerSqm: number
+  futureRentPerSqm?: number   // Pre-Market: erwarteter künftiger Preis
+}
+
+function chf(v: number): string {
+  return `CHF ${Math.round(v).toLocaleString('de-CH')}/m²`
+}
+
+export function MarketPricePanel({ city, assetType, askingRentPerSqm, futureRentPerSqm }: Props) {
+  const est = estimateMarketRent(city, assetType, askingRentPerSqm)
+  if (!est) return null
+  const meta = VERDICT_META[est.verdict]
+
+  return (
+    <Paper sx={{ p: 2.5 }}>
+      <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 1, mb: 1.5 }}>
+        <TrendingUp size={15} color={DS_TEXT.secondary} />
+        <Typography variant="h6" sx={{ fontWeight: 700 }}>Marktpreis-Einschätzung</Typography>
+        <Chip
+          label={meta.label}
+          size="small"
+          sx={{ ml: 'auto', bgcolor: meta.bg, color: meta.fg, fontWeight: 700, fontSize: 11, height: 22, border: `1px solid ${meta.border}` }}
+        />
+      </Box>
+
+      <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', gap: 2, mb: 1.25 }}>
+        <Box sx={{ flex: 1, p: 1.25, border: `1px solid ${DS_BORDER.default}`, borderRadius: 1 }}>
+          <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ color: DS_TEXT.muted }}>Angebotsmiete</Typography>
+          <Typography variant="body1" sx={{ fontWeight: 700 }}>{chf(est.askingRentPerSqm)}</Typography>
+        </Box>
+        <Box sx={{ flex: 1, p: 1.25, border: `1px solid ${DS_BORDER.default}`, borderRadius: 1 }}>
+          <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ color: DS_TEXT.muted }}>Faire Marktmiete</Typography>
+          <Typography variant="body1" sx={{ fontWeight: 700 }}>
+            {chf(est.fairRentPerSqm)}
+            <Box component="span" sx={{ ml: 0.75, fontSize: 12, fontWeight: 600, color: meta.fg }}>
+              {est.deltaPct > 0 ? `+${est.deltaPct}%` : `${est.deltaPct}%`}
+            </Box>
+          </Typography>
+        </Box>
+      </Box>
+
+      {futureRentPerSqm != null && futureRentPerSqm > 0 && (
+        <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', justifyContent: 'space-between', alignItems: 'center', py: 1, px: 1.5, mb: 1.25, bgcolor: DS_SURFACE.purple.bg, border: `1px solid ${DS_SURFACE.purple.border}`, borderRadius: 1 }}>
+          <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ color: DS_TEXT.muted, fontWeight: 600 }}>Erwartet (Pre-Market)</Typography>
+          <Typography variant="body2" sx={{ fontWeight: 700 }}>
+            {chf(est.askingRentPerSqm)} <Box component="span" sx={{ color: DS_TEXT.muted }}>→</Box> {chf(futureRentPerSqm)}
+          </Typography>
+        </Box>
+      )}
+
+      <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ color: DS_TEXT.muted, display: 'block' }}>
+        {est.rationale}
+      </Typography>
+    </Paper>
+  )
+}

src/components/match-detail/index.ts

@@ -14,4 +14,5 @@ export { FutureAvailabilityContextPanel } from './FutureAvailabilityContextPanel
 export { NextActionsPanel } from './NextActionsPanel'
 export { FitOutCostPanel } from './FitOutCostPanel'
 export { FitOutAdvicePanel } from './FitOutAdvicePanel'
+export { MarketPricePanel } from './MarketPricePanel'
 export { FLOOR_LABEL, ASSET_LABELS, RISK_LABELS, SOURCE_LABELS, PASSERBY_LABELS, KeyFactRow, UnitStatusChip, UnitRow } from './MatchDetailPropertyDetails'

src/components/supply/UnitStructurePanel.tsx

@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ import { useUnitMatchesMap, useUnitBundle, useBundleMatches } from '../../hooks/
 import { useUpdateUnit } from '../../hooks/useProperties'
 import { DS_BORDER, DS_PRE_MARKET, DS_SURFACE, DS_TEXT } from '../../lib/ds'
 import { FIT_OUT_LABELS } from '../../lib/constants'
+import { suggestFutureRent } from '../../lib/rentEstimate'
 import { floorLabel } from './PropertyDetailHelpers'
 
 const UNIT_NEEDS_BUILD = new Set(['SHELL', 'BASIC'])
@@ -19,6 +20,7 @@ interface UnitDraft {
   fitOutByLandlord?: boolean
   mieterausbaubeitragPerSqm?: number
   parkingSpots?: number
+  expectedRentPerSqm?: number
 }
 
 function MatchPill({ m }: { m: UnitNeedMatch }) {
@@ -74,6 +76,7 @@ export function UnitStructurePanel({ p }: { p: Property }) {
       fitOutByLandlord: u.fitOutByLandlord,
       mieterausbaubeitragPerSqm: u.mieterausbaubeitragPerSqm,
       parkingSpots: u.parkingSpots,
+      expectedRentPerSqm: u.expectedRentPerSqm,
     })
     setEditingUnit(u.id)
   }
@@ -89,6 +92,7 @@ export function UnitStructurePanel({ p }: { p: Property }) {
         fitOutByLandlord: needsBuild ? unitDraft.fitOutByLandlord : undefined,
         mieterausbaubeitragPerSqm: needsBuild && unitDraft.fitOutByLandlord === false ? unitDraft.mieterausbaubeitragPerSqm : undefined,
         parkingSpots: unitDraft.parkingSpots,
+        expectedRentPerSqm: unitDraft.expectedRentPerSqm,
       },
     })
     setEditingUnit(null)
@@ -412,6 +416,21 @@ export function UnitStructurePanel({ p }: { p: Property }) {
               />
             </Box>
 
+            {u.schattenmarktRelease?.enabled && (() => {
+              const suggestion = suggestFutureRent(p.location?.city ?? '', unitDraft.rentPricePerSqm ?? u.rentPricePerSqm ?? p.rentPricePerSqm)
+              return (
+                <Box sx={{ mt: 1.25 }}>
+                  <TextField
+                    label="Erwarteter Preis Pre-Market (CHF/m²)" type="number" size="small" fullWidth
+                    value={unitDraft.expectedRentPerSqm ?? ''}
+                    onChange={e => setUnitDraft(d => ({ ...d, expectedRentPerSqm: parseInt(e.target.value) || undefined }))}
+                    slotProps={{ htmlInput: { min: 0, step: 10 } }}
+                    helperText={suggestion ? `Vorschlag (indexiert): CHF ${suggestion}/m² — leer = heutiger Preis` : 'Leer = heutiger Preis'}
+                  />
+                </Box>
+              )
+            })()}
+
             {UNIT_NEEDS_BUILD.has((unitDraft.fitOut || p.hardFacts?.fitOut) ?? '') && (
               <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', gap: 1.5, alignItems: 'center', flexWrap: 'wrap', mt: 1.25 }}>
                 <Typography variant="caption" color="text.secondary">Wer baut aus?</Typography>

src/domain/unit.ts

@@ -24,6 +24,7 @@ export interface PropertyUnit {
   fitOutByLandlord?: boolean          // wer trägt den Ausbau (Default: Objekt-Wert)
   mieterausbaubeitragPerSqm?: number  // MAB der Einheit (Default: Objekt-Wert)
   parkingSpots?: number               // aus dem Objekt-Pool zugeteilte Parkplätze
+  expectedRentPerSqm?: number         // erwarteter künftiger Preis (Pre-Market), ≠ heutige Sollmiete
   leases?: Lease[]          // Mietverträge — current, historical, future
   /** @deprecated Use leases[].tenant.companyName */
   currentTenant?: string

src/lib/__tests__/rentEstimate.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+import { describe, it, expect } from 'vitest'
+import { estimateMarketRent, suggestFutureRent } from '../rentEstimate'
+
+describe('estimateMarketRent', () => {
+  it('flags asking rent clearly above the city median as ABOVE', () => {
+    // Zürich OFFICE median = 42
+    const est = estimateMarketRent('Zürich', 'OFFICE', 60)
+    expect(est).not.toBeNull()
+    expect(est!.verdict).toBe('ABOVE')
+    expect(est!.deltaPct).toBeGreaterThan(5)
+    expect(est!.fairRentPerSqm).toBe(42)
+  })
+
+  it('flags asking rent clearly below median as BELOW', () => {
+    const est = estimateMarketRent('Zürich', 'OFFICE', 30)
+    expect(est!.verdict).toBe('BELOW')
+    expect(est!.deltaPct).toBeLessThan(-5)
+  })
+
+  it('treats near-median asking rent as AT (within ±5%)', () => {
+    const est = estimateMarketRent('Zürich', 'OFFICE', 43)
+    expect(est!.verdict).toBe('AT')
+  })
+
+  it('returns null for unknown city', () => {
+    expect(estimateMarketRent('Atlantis', 'OFFICE', 40)).toBeNull()
+  })
+
+  it('suggestFutureRent indexes by the city rent trend', () => {
+    // Zürich rentTrend12m = +4.2% → 100 * 1.042 = 104 (rounded)
+    expect(suggestFutureRent('Zürich', 100)).toBe(104)
+  })
+})

src/lib/rentEstimate.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+import { getMarketRent, getCityIntelligence } from './locationIntelligence'
+
+export type RentVerdict = 'BELOW' | 'AT' | 'ABOVE'
+
+export interface RentEstimate {
+  fairRentPerSqm: number      // Median-Marktmiete als faire Benchmark
+  askingRentPerSqm: number
+  verdict: RentVerdict        // Angebot vs. Markt
+  deltaPct: number            // +über / −unter Markt (gerundet)
+  rationale: string
+  confidence: 'LOW' | 'MEDIUM' | 'HIGH'
+}
+
+/**
+ * Markt-Einschätzung der Angebotsmiete: Vergleich gegen die Median-Marktmiete
+ * (aus Standort-Intelligence) plus Leerstand/Miettrend als Kontext. Deterministisch.
+ */
+export function estimateMarketRent(city: string, assetType: string, askingRentPerSqm: number): RentEstimate | null {
+  const market = getMarketRent(city, assetType)
+  const intel = getCityIntelligence(city)
+  if (market == null || !intel || askingRentPerSqm <= 0) return null
+
+  const fair = market
+  const deltaPct = Math.round(((askingRentPerSqm - fair) / fair) * 100)
+  const verdict: RentVerdict = deltaPct > 5 ? 'ABOVE' : deltaPct < -5 ? 'BELOW' : 'AT'
+  const trendNote = `Miettrend ${intel.rentTrend12m >= 0 ? '+' : ''}${intel.rentTrend12m}% (12 M)`
+  const verdictText =
+    verdict === 'ABOVE' ? `Angebot ${deltaPct}% über Marktmedian.`
+    : verdict === 'BELOW' ? `Angebot ${Math.abs(deltaPct)}% unter Marktmedian.`
+    : 'Angebot marktkonform.'
+  const rationale = `Median ${city}: CHF ${fair}/m² · Leerstand ${intel.vacancyRatePct}% · ${trendNote}. ${verdictText}`
+  const confidence = intel.demandStrength === 'LOW' ? 'LOW' : intel.avgDaysOnMarket > 70 ? 'MEDIUM' : 'HIGH'
+
+  return { fairRentPerSqm: fair, askingRentPerSqm, verdict, deltaPct, rationale, confidence }
+}
+
+/** Indexierter Vorschlag für den künftigen Preis (Pre-Market): Heutepreis × (1 + Miettrend). */
+export function suggestFutureRent(city: string, currentRentPerSqm: number): number | null {
+  const intel = getCityIntelligence(city)
+  if (!intel || currentRentPerSqm <= 0) return null
+  return Math.round(currentRentPerSqm * (1 + intel.rentTrend12m / 100))
+}

src/pages/demand/MatchDetail.tsx

@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ import { useInquiryStore } from '../../stores/inquiryStore'
 import { AddToPipelineDialog } from '../../components/shortlist'
 import { MatchReasonList } from '../../components/match-card/MatchReasonList'
 import { getCityIntelligence, lookupCityCoords } from '../../lib/locationIntelligence'
-import { NextActionsPanel, FitOutCostPanel, FitOutAdvicePanel } from '../../components/match-detail'
+import { NextActionsPanel, FitOutCostPanel, FitOutAdvicePanel, MarketPricePanel } from '../../components/match-detail'
 import type { MatchCardReason } from '../../components/match-card/MatchCardViewModel'
 import { useMatchDetailData } from '../../hooks/useMatchDetailData'
 import { useMatchDetail } from '../../hooks/useMatches'
@@ -39,6 +39,7 @@ export default function MatchDetail() {
   const { openInquiryDialog } = useInquiryStore()
 
   const { match, property, need, signal, isLoading, isFuture } = useMatchDetailData(matchId ?? '')
+  const detailUnit = property?.units?.find(u => u.id === match?.unitId)
 
   if (isLoading) {
     return (
@@ -238,6 +239,16 @@ export default function MatchDetail() {
           />
         )}
 
+        {/* ── Marktpreis-Einschätzung (Angebot vs. Markt; bei Pre-Market inkl. Zukunftspreis) ── */}
+        {property?.location?.city && property.rentPricePerSqm > 0 && (
+          <MarketPricePanel
+            city={property.location.city}
+            assetType={property.assetType}
+            askingRentPerSqm={detailUnit?.rentPricePerSqm ?? property.rentPricePerSqm}
+            futureRentPerSqm={isFuture ? detailUnit?.expectedRentPerSqm : undefined}
+          />
+        )}
+
         {/* ── Full analysis toggle + expanded panels ── */}
         <MatchDetailScoreBreakdown
           match={match}

src/services/matchSyncService.ts

@@ -106,7 +106,9 @@ export function generateMatchesForNeed(need: Need): void {
       for (const unit of prop.units!) {
         if (!unit.schattenmarktRelease?.enabled) continue
         const facts = resolveUnitFacts(prop, unit)
-        const unitOutput = scoreProperty(need, prop, unit.areaSqm, unit.rentPricePerSqm ?? prop.rentPricePerSqm, ResultType.FUTURE_AVAILABILITY, {
+        // Pre-Market: erwarteter künftiger Preis hat Vorrang vor der heutigen Sollmiete
+        const unitPrice = unit.expectedRentPerSqm ?? unit.rentPricePerSqm ?? prop.rentPricePerSqm
+        const unitOutput = scoreProperty(need, prop, unit.areaSqm, unitPrice, ResultType.FUTURE_AVAILABILITY, {
           fitOut: facts.fitOut,
           mieterausbaubeitragPerSqm: facts.mabPerSqm,
           fitOutByLandlord: facts.fitOutByLandlord,