feat(demand): market rent estimate (asking vs. fair) + pre-market expected price
- lib/rentEstimate: deterministic market estimate from Standort-Intelligence (median rent benchmark + vacancy/trend) → fair rent, verdict BELOW/AT/ABOVE, deltaPct, rationale; suggestFutureRent indexes today's price by city rent trend - MarketPricePanel in MatchDetail: asking vs. fair market rent + verdict badge + rationale; shows pre-market expected price (heute → erwartet) - unit.expectedRentPerSqm: future pre-market price; scorer prefers it over current rent for FUTURE_AVAILABILITY - UnitStructurePanel editor: expected-price field (with indexed suggestion) shown for pre-market-released units - tests: rentEstimate verdict thresholds + future-rent indexing Note: rent estimate is a deterministic market-data calc (not an LLM) — honest & testable; can be routed through IAIService later if a real model is wanted. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Benjamin Sutter
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import { Box, Chip, Paper, Typography } from '@mui/material'
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import { TrendingUp } from 'lucide-react'
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import { estimateMarketRent, type RentVerdict } from '../../lib/rentEstimate'
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import { DS_TEXT, DS_SURFACE, DS_BORDER } from '../../lib/ds'
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const VERDICT_META: Record<RentVerdict, { label: string; bg: string; border: string; fg: string }> = {
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BELOW: { label: 'Unter Markt', bg: DS_SURFACE.success.bg, border: DS_SURFACE.success.border, fg: DS_TEXT.success },
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AT: { label: 'Marktkonform', bg: DS_SURFACE.blue.bg, border: DS_SURFACE.blue.border, fg: DS_TEXT.signalDark },
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ABOVE: { label: 'Über Markt', bg: DS_SURFACE.warning.bg, border: DS_SURFACE.warning.border, fg: DS_TEXT.warning },
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}
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interface Props {
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city: string
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assetType: string
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askingRentPerSqm: number
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futureRentPerSqm?: number // Pre-Market: erwarteter künftiger Preis
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}
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function chf(v: number): string {
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return `CHF ${Math.round(v).toLocaleString('de-CH')}/m²`
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}
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export function MarketPricePanel({ city, assetType, askingRentPerSqm, futureRentPerSqm }: Props) {
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const est = estimateMarketRent(city, assetType, askingRentPerSqm)
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if (!est) return null
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const meta = VERDICT_META[est.verdict]
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return (
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<Paper sx={{ p: 2.5 }}>
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<Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 1, mb: 1.5 }}>
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<TrendingUp size={15} color={DS_TEXT.secondary} />
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<Typography variant="h6" sx={{ fontWeight: 700 }}>Marktpreis-Einschätzung</Typography>
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<Chip
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label={meta.label}
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size="small"
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sx={{ ml: 'auto', bgcolor: meta.bg, color: meta.fg, fontWeight: 700, fontSize: 11, height: 22, border: `1px solid ${meta.border}` }}
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/>
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</Box>
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<Box sx={{ display: 'flex', gap: 2, mb: 1.25 }}>
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<Box sx={{ flex: 1, p: 1.25, border: `1px solid ${DS_BORDER.default}`, borderRadius: 1 }}>
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<Typography variant="caption" sx={{ color: DS_TEXT.muted }}>Angebotsmiete</Typography>
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<Typography variant="body1" sx={{ fontWeight: 700 }}>{chf(est.askingRentPerSqm)}</Typography>
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</Box>
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<Box sx={{ flex: 1, p: 1.25, border: `1px solid ${DS_BORDER.default}`, borderRadius: 1 }}>
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<Typography variant="caption" sx={{ color: DS_TEXT.muted }}>Faire Marktmiete</Typography>
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<Typography variant="body1" sx={{ fontWeight: 700 }}>
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{chf(est.fairRentPerSqm)}
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<Box component="span" sx={{ ml: 0.75, fontSize: 12, fontWeight: 600, color: meta.fg }}>
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{est.deltaPct > 0 ? `+${est.deltaPct}%` : `${est.deltaPct}%`}
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</Box>
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</Typography>
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</Box>
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</Box>
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{futureRentPerSqm != null && futureRentPerSqm > 0 && (
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<Box sx={{ display: 'flex', justifyContent: 'space-between', alignItems: 'center', py: 1, px: 1.5, mb: 1.25, bgcolor: DS_SURFACE.purple.bg, border: `1px solid ${DS_SURFACE.purple.border}`, borderRadius: 1 }}>
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<Typography variant="caption" sx={{ color: DS_TEXT.muted, fontWeight: 600 }}>Erwartet (Pre-Market)</Typography>
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<Typography variant="body2" sx={{ fontWeight: 700 }}>
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{chf(est.askingRentPerSqm)} <Box component="span" sx={{ color: DS_TEXT.muted }}>→</Box> {chf(futureRentPerSqm)}
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</Typography>
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</Box>
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)}
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<Typography variant="caption" sx={{ color: DS_TEXT.muted, display: 'block' }}>
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{est.rationale}
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</Typography>
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</Paper>
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)
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}
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@@ -14,4 +14,5 @@ export { FutureAvailabilityContextPanel } from './FutureAvailabilityContextPanel
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export { NextActionsPanel } from './NextActionsPanel'
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export { FitOutCostPanel } from './FitOutCostPanel'
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export { FitOutAdvicePanel } from './FitOutAdvicePanel'
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export { MarketPricePanel } from './MarketPricePanel'
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export { FLOOR_LABEL, ASSET_LABELS, RISK_LABELS, SOURCE_LABELS, PASSERBY_LABELS, KeyFactRow, UnitStatusChip, UnitRow } from './MatchDetailPropertyDetails'
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@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ import { useUnitMatchesMap, useUnitBundle, useBundleMatches } from '../../hooks/
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import { useUpdateUnit } from '../../hooks/useProperties'
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import { DS_BORDER, DS_PRE_MARKET, DS_SURFACE, DS_TEXT } from '../../lib/ds'
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import { FIT_OUT_LABELS } from '../../lib/constants'
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import { suggestFutureRent } from '../../lib/rentEstimate'
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import { floorLabel } from './PropertyDetailHelpers'
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const UNIT_NEEDS_BUILD = new Set(['SHELL', 'BASIC'])
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@@ -19,6 +20,7 @@ interface UnitDraft {
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fitOutByLandlord?: boolean
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mieterausbaubeitragPerSqm?: number
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parkingSpots?: number
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expectedRentPerSqm?: number
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}
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function MatchPill({ m }: { m: UnitNeedMatch }) {
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@@ -74,6 +76,7 @@ export function UnitStructurePanel({ p }: { p: Property }) {
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fitOutByLandlord: u.fitOutByLandlord,
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mieterausbaubeitragPerSqm: u.mieterausbaubeitragPerSqm,
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parkingSpots: u.parkingSpots,
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expectedRentPerSqm: u.expectedRentPerSqm,
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})
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setEditingUnit(u.id)
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}
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@@ -89,6 +92,7 @@ export function UnitStructurePanel({ p }: { p: Property }) {
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fitOutByLandlord: needsBuild ? unitDraft.fitOutByLandlord : undefined,
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mieterausbaubeitragPerSqm: needsBuild && unitDraft.fitOutByLandlord === false ? unitDraft.mieterausbaubeitragPerSqm : undefined,
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parkingSpots: unitDraft.parkingSpots,
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expectedRentPerSqm: unitDraft.expectedRentPerSqm,
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},
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})
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setEditingUnit(null)
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@@ -412,6 +416,21 @@ export function UnitStructurePanel({ p }: { p: Property }) {
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/>
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</Box>
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{u.schattenmarktRelease?.enabled && (() => {
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const suggestion = suggestFutureRent(p.location?.city ?? '', unitDraft.rentPricePerSqm ?? u.rentPricePerSqm ?? p.rentPricePerSqm)
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return (
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<Box sx={{ mt: 1.25 }}>
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<TextField
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label="Erwarteter Preis Pre-Market (CHF/m²)" type="number" size="small" fullWidth
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value={unitDraft.expectedRentPerSqm ?? ''}
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onChange={e => setUnitDraft(d => ({ ...d, expectedRentPerSqm: parseInt(e.target.value) || undefined }))}
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slotProps={{ htmlInput: { min: 0, step: 10 } }}
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helperText={suggestion ? `Vorschlag (indexiert): CHF ${suggestion}/m² — leer = heutiger Preis` : 'Leer = heutiger Preis'}
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/>
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</Box>
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)
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})()}
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{UNIT_NEEDS_BUILD.has((unitDraft.fitOut || p.hardFacts?.fitOut) ?? '') && (
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<Box sx={{ display: 'flex', gap: 1.5, alignItems: 'center', flexWrap: 'wrap', mt: 1.25 }}>
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<Typography variant="caption" color="text.secondary">Wer baut aus?</Typography>
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@@ -24,6 +24,7 @@ export interface PropertyUnit {
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fitOutByLandlord?: boolean // wer trägt den Ausbau (Default: Objekt-Wert)
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mieterausbaubeitragPerSqm?: number // MAB der Einheit (Default: Objekt-Wert)
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parkingSpots?: number // aus dem Objekt-Pool zugeteilte Parkplätze
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expectedRentPerSqm?: number // erwarteter künftiger Preis (Pre-Market), ≠ heutige Sollmiete
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leases?: Lease[] // Mietverträge — current, historical, future
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/** @deprecated Use leases[].tenant.companyName */
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currentTenant?: string
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@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
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import { describe, it, expect } from 'vitest'
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import { estimateMarketRent, suggestFutureRent } from '../rentEstimate'
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describe('estimateMarketRent', () => {
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it('flags asking rent clearly above the city median as ABOVE', () => {
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// Zürich OFFICE median = 42
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const est = estimateMarketRent('Zürich', 'OFFICE', 60)
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expect(est).not.toBeNull()
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expect(est!.verdict).toBe('ABOVE')
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expect(est!.deltaPct).toBeGreaterThan(5)
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expect(est!.fairRentPerSqm).toBe(42)
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})
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it('flags asking rent clearly below median as BELOW', () => {
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const est = estimateMarketRent('Zürich', 'OFFICE', 30)
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expect(est!.verdict).toBe('BELOW')
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expect(est!.deltaPct).toBeLessThan(-5)
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})
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it('treats near-median asking rent as AT (within ±5%)', () => {
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const est = estimateMarketRent('Zürich', 'OFFICE', 43)
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expect(est!.verdict).toBe('AT')
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})
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it('returns null for unknown city', () => {
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expect(estimateMarketRent('Atlantis', 'OFFICE', 40)).toBeNull()
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})
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it('suggestFutureRent indexes by the city rent trend', () => {
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// Zürich rentTrend12m = +4.2% → 100 * 1.042 = 104 (rounded)
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expect(suggestFutureRent('Zürich', 100)).toBe(104)
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})
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})
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@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
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import { getMarketRent, getCityIntelligence } from './locationIntelligence'
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export type RentVerdict = 'BELOW' | 'AT' | 'ABOVE'
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export interface RentEstimate {
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fairRentPerSqm: number // Median-Marktmiete als faire Benchmark
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askingRentPerSqm: number
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verdict: RentVerdict // Angebot vs. Markt
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deltaPct: number // +über / −unter Markt (gerundet)
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rationale: string
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confidence: 'LOW' | 'MEDIUM' | 'HIGH'
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}
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/**
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* Markt-Einschätzung der Angebotsmiete: Vergleich gegen die Median-Marktmiete
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* (aus Standort-Intelligence) plus Leerstand/Miettrend als Kontext. Deterministisch.
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*/
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export function estimateMarketRent(city: string, assetType: string, askingRentPerSqm: number): RentEstimate | null {
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const market = getMarketRent(city, assetType)
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const intel = getCityIntelligence(city)
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if (market == null || !intel || askingRentPerSqm <= 0) return null
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const fair = market
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const deltaPct = Math.round(((askingRentPerSqm - fair) / fair) * 100)
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const verdict: RentVerdict = deltaPct > 5 ? 'ABOVE' : deltaPct < -5 ? 'BELOW' : 'AT'
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const trendNote = `Miettrend ${intel.rentTrend12m >= 0 ? '+' : ''}${intel.rentTrend12m}% (12 M)`
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const verdictText =
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verdict === 'ABOVE' ? `Angebot ${deltaPct}% über Marktmedian.`
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: verdict === 'BELOW' ? `Angebot ${Math.abs(deltaPct)}% unter Marktmedian.`
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: 'Angebot marktkonform.'
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const rationale = `Median ${city}: CHF ${fair}/m² · Leerstand ${intel.vacancyRatePct}% · ${trendNote}. ${verdictText}`
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const confidence = intel.demandStrength === 'LOW' ? 'LOW' : intel.avgDaysOnMarket > 70 ? 'MEDIUM' : 'HIGH'
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return { fairRentPerSqm: fair, askingRentPerSqm, verdict, deltaPct, rationale, confidence }
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}
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/** Indexierter Vorschlag für den künftigen Preis (Pre-Market): Heutepreis × (1 + Miettrend). */
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export function suggestFutureRent(city: string, currentRentPerSqm: number): number | null {
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const intel = getCityIntelligence(city)
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if (!intel || currentRentPerSqm <= 0) return null
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return Math.round(currentRentPerSqm * (1 + intel.rentTrend12m / 100))
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}
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@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ import { useInquiryStore } from '../../stores/inquiryStore'
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import { AddToPipelineDialog } from '../../components/shortlist'
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import { MatchReasonList } from '../../components/match-card/MatchReasonList'
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import { getCityIntelligence, lookupCityCoords } from '../../lib/locationIntelligence'
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import { NextActionsPanel, FitOutCostPanel, FitOutAdvicePanel } from '../../components/match-detail'
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import { NextActionsPanel, FitOutCostPanel, FitOutAdvicePanel, MarketPricePanel } from '../../components/match-detail'
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import type { MatchCardReason } from '../../components/match-card/MatchCardViewModel'
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import { useMatchDetailData } from '../../hooks/useMatchDetailData'
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import { useMatchDetail } from '../../hooks/useMatches'
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@@ -39,6 +39,7 @@ export default function MatchDetail() {
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const { openInquiryDialog } = useInquiryStore()
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const { match, property, need, signal, isLoading, isFuture } = useMatchDetailData(matchId ?? '')
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const detailUnit = property?.units?.find(u => u.id === match?.unitId)
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if (isLoading) {
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return (
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@@ -238,6 +239,16 @@ export default function MatchDetail() {
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/>
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)}
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{/* ── Marktpreis-Einschätzung (Angebot vs. Markt; bei Pre-Market inkl. Zukunftspreis) ── */}
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{property?.location?.city && property.rentPricePerSqm > 0 && (
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<MarketPricePanel
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city={property.location.city}
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assetType={property.assetType}
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askingRentPerSqm={detailUnit?.rentPricePerSqm ?? property.rentPricePerSqm}
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futureRentPerSqm={isFuture ? detailUnit?.expectedRentPerSqm : undefined}
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/>
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)}
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{/* ── Full analysis toggle + expanded panels ── */}
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<MatchDetailScoreBreakdown
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match={match}
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@@ -106,7 +106,9 @@ export function generateMatchesForNeed(need: Need): void {
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for (const unit of prop.units!) {
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if (!unit.schattenmarktRelease?.enabled) continue
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const facts = resolveUnitFacts(prop, unit)
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const unitOutput = scoreProperty(need, prop, unit.areaSqm, unit.rentPricePerSqm ?? prop.rentPricePerSqm, ResultType.FUTURE_AVAILABILITY, {
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// Pre-Market: erwarteter künftiger Preis hat Vorrang vor der heutigen Sollmiete
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const unitPrice = unit.expectedRentPerSqm ?? unit.rentPricePerSqm ?? prop.rentPricePerSqm
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const unitOutput = scoreProperty(need, prop, unit.areaSqm, unitPrice, ResultType.FUTURE_AVAILABILITY, {
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fitOut: facts.fitOut,
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mieterausbaubeitragPerSqm: facts.mabPerSqm,
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fitOutByLandlord: facts.fitOutByLandlord,
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