feat(ai): AI pre-market rent recommendation from regional comparables, supply & demand

- IAIService.recommendPreMarketRent: recommended price + range, verdict (UNDERPRICED/FAIR/AMBITIOUS), drivers, rationale, confidence
- MockAIService: deterministic recommendation from locationIntelligence — regional comp median, vacancy (supply), demand strength + days-on-market, rent trend (forward for pre-market)
- BackendAIService: LLM prompt with market context + mock fallback
- usePreMarketRentRecommendation hook; PreMarketPriceAdvisor component shows the recommendation per released unit with verdict ("zu günstig" when underpriced) + adjustable expected price + "Empfehlung übernehmen"
- Replaces the simple indexed suggestion with a market-driven AI recommendation that flags underpricing

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/components/supply/PreMarketPriceAdvisor.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,91 @@
+import { useState } from 'react'
+import { Box, Button, Chip, CircularProgress, TextField, Typography } from '@mui/material'
+import { Sparkles } from 'lucide-react'
+import type { Property, PropertyUnit } from '../../domain/property'
+import { usePreMarketRentRecommendation } from '../../hooks/useAI'
+import { useUpdateUnit } from '../../hooks/useProperties'
+import { resolveUnitFacts } from '../../lib/unitFacts'
+import { DS_PRE_MARKET, DS_SURFACE, DS_TEXT } from '../../lib/ds'
+
+const VERDICT_META: Record<string, { label: string; bg: string; fg: string }> = {
+  UNDERPRICED: { label: 'zu günstig', bg: '#fef3c7', fg: '#92400e' },
+  FAIR:        { label: 'marktgerecht', bg: '#dcfce7', fg: '#166534' },
+  AMBITIOUS:   { label: 'ambitioniert', bg: '#fee2e2', fg: '#991b1b' },
+}
+
+interface Props {
+  property: Property
+  unit: PropertyUnit
+}
+
+/** KI-Preisempfehlung für eine Pre-Market-Einheit (regionale Vergleichsmieten, Angebot, Nachfrage). */
+export function PreMarketPriceAdvisor({ property, unit }: Props) {
+  const facts = resolveUnitFacts(property, unit)
+  const { data, isLoading, isError } = usePreMarketRentRecommendation({
+    city: property.location?.city ?? '',
+    assetType: property.assetType,
+    areaSqm: unit.areaSqm,
+    currentRentPerSqm: facts.rentPricePerSqm,
+    availableFrom: unit.schattenmarktRelease?.availableFrom,
+  })
+  const updateUnit = useUpdateUnit(property.id)
+  const [draft, setDraft] = useState(unit.expectedRentPerSqm != null ? String(unit.expectedRentPerSqm) : '')
+
+  function saveExpected(value: string) {
+    updateUnit.mutate({ unitId: unit.id, data: { expectedRentPerSqm: parseInt(value) || undefined } })
+  }
+
+  const rec = data?.data
+  const verdict = rec ? VERDICT_META[rec.verdict] : null
+
+  return (
+    <Box sx={{ mt: 0.75, p: 1, borderRadius: 1, bgcolor: DS_SURFACE.purple.bg, border: `1px solid ${DS_SURFACE.purple.border}` }}>
+      <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 0.5, mb: 0.5 }}>
+        <Sparkles size={12} color={DS_PRE_MARKET.accent} />
+        <Typography sx={{ fontSize: '0.65rem', fontWeight: 700, color: '#5b21b6' }}>
+          KI-Preisempfehlung Pre-Market
+        </Typography>
+        {verdict && (
+          <Chip label={verdict.label} size="small" sx={{ height: 16, fontSize: '0.6rem', fontWeight: 700, bgcolor: verdict.bg, color: verdict.fg, ml: 'auto' }} />
+        )}
+      </Box>
+
+      {isLoading ? (
+        <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 1, py: 0.5 }}>
+          <CircularProgress size={12} sx={{ color: DS_PRE_MARKET.accent }} />
+          <Typography sx={{ fontSize: '0.65rem', color: '#6d28d9' }}>Marktanalyse läuft…</Typography>
+        </Box>
+      ) : isError || !rec ? (
+        <Typography sx={{ fontSize: '0.65rem', color: DS_TEXT.muted }}>Keine Empfehlung verfügbar.</Typography>
+      ) : (
+        <>
+          <Typography sx={{ fontSize: '0.7rem', fontWeight: 700, color: '#5b21b6' }}>
+            Empfehlung: CHF {rec.recommendedPerSqm}/m²
+            <Box component="span" sx={{ fontWeight: 400, color: '#6d28d9' }}> (CHF {rec.rangeMinPerSqm}–{rec.rangeMaxPerSqm})</Box>
+          </Typography>
+          <Typography sx={{ fontSize: '0.62rem', color: '#6d28d9', mb: 0.5 }}>
+            {rec.drivers.join(' · ')}
+          </Typography>
+          <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 0.75 }}>
+            <TextField
+              type="number" size="small" label="Erwarteter Preis"
+              placeholder={`z.B. ${rec.recommendedPerSqm}`}
+              value={draft}
+              onChange={e => setDraft(e.target.value)}
+              onBlur={e => saveExpected(e.target.value)}
+              slotProps={{ inputLabel: { shrink: true }, htmlInput: { min: 0, step: 10 } }}
+              sx={{ width: 150, '& .MuiInputBase-input': { fontSize: '0.72rem', py: 0.5 } }}
+            />
+            <Button
+              size="small"
+              onClick={() => { setDraft(String(rec.recommendedPerSqm)); saveExpected(String(rec.recommendedPerSqm)) }}
+              sx={{ textTransform: 'none', fontSize: '0.68rem', color: DS_PRE_MARKET.accent }}
+            >
+              Empfehlung übernehmen
+            </Button>
+          </Box>
+        </>
+      )}
+    </Box>
+  )
+}

src/components/supply/PreMarketUnitGrid.tsx

@@ -1,14 +1,13 @@
 import { useState } from 'react'
-import { Box, Button, CircularProgress, Collapse, IconButton, Switch, TextField, Tooltip, Typography } from '@mui/material'
+import { Box, CircularProgress, Collapse, IconButton, Switch, TextField, Tooltip, Typography } from '@mui/material'
-import { EyeOff, Pencil, Sparkles } from 'lucide-react'
+import { EyeOff, Pencil } from 'lucide-react'
 import type { Property } from '../../domain/property'
-import { useUpdateUnit } from '../../hooks/useProperties'
+import { DS_BORDER, DS_PRE_MARKET, DS_TEXT } from '../../lib/ds'
-import { DS_BORDER, DS_PRE_MARKET, DS_SURFACE, DS_TEXT } from '../../lib/ds'
 import { FIT_OUT_LABELS } from '../../lib/constants'
 import { resolveUnitFacts } from '../../lib/unitFacts'
-import { suggestFutureRent } from '../../lib/rentEstimate'
 import { floorLabel } from './PropertyDetailHelpers'
 import { UnitFieldsEditor } from './UnitFieldsEditor'
+import { PreMarketPriceAdvisor } from './PreMarketPriceAdvisor'
 
 type PropertyUnit = NonNullable<Property['units']>[number]
 
@@ -29,14 +28,6 @@ interface Props {
 
 export function PreMarketUnitGrid({ property, units, unitStates, unitSaving, setUnitStates, saveUnit }: Props) {
   const [editing, setEditing] = useState<string | null>(null)
-  const [expectedDraft, setExpectedDraft] = useState<Record<string, string>>(() =>
-    Object.fromEntries(units.map(u => [u.id, u.expectedRentPerSqm != null ? String(u.expectedRentPerSqm) : ''])),
-  )
-  const updateUnit = useUpdateUnit(property.id)
-
-  function saveExpected(unitId: string, value: string) {
-    updateUnit.mutate({ unitId, data: { expectedRentPerSqm: parseInt(value) || undefined } })
-  }
 
   return (
     <Box sx={{ mt: 1.25, pt: 1.25, borderTop: `1px solid ${DS_PRE_MARKET.border}` }}>
@@ -153,45 +144,8 @@ export function PreMarketUnitGrid({ property, units, unitStates, unitSaving, set
               {detailParts.join(' · ')}
             </Typography>
 
-            {/* KI-Preis-Ansicht: nur wenn freigegeben — Vorschlag, anpassbar wenn zu günstig */}
+            {/* KI-Preisempfehlung: nur wenn freigegeben */}
-            {us.enabled && (() => {
+            {us.enabled && <PreMarketPriceAdvisor property={property} unit={u} />}
-              const current = f.rentPricePerSqm
-              const suggestion = suggestFutureRent(property.location?.city ?? '', current)
-              return (
-                <Box sx={{ mt: 0.75, p: 1, borderRadius: 1, bgcolor: DS_SURFACE.purple.bg, border: `1px solid ${DS_SURFACE.purple.border}` }}>
-                  <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 0.5, mb: 0.5 }}>
-                    <Sparkles size={12} color={DS_PRE_MARKET.accent} />
-                    <Typography sx={{ fontSize: '0.65rem', fontWeight: 700, color: '#5b21b6' }}>
-                      KI-Preisempfehlung Pre-Market
-                    </Typography>
-                  </Box>
-                  <Typography sx={{ fontSize: '0.65rem', color: '#6d28d9', mb: 0.625 }}>
-                    Heute CHF {current}/m²
-                    {suggestion ? ` → indexiert CHF ${suggestion}/m²` : ''} — anpassen, falls zu günstig.
-                  </Typography>
-                  <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 0.75 }}>
-                    <TextField
-                      type="number" size="small" placeholder={suggestion ? `z.B. ${suggestion}` : 'CHF/m²'}
-                      label="Erwarteter Preis"
-                      value={expectedDraft[u.id] ?? ''}
-                      onChange={e => setExpectedDraft(prev => ({ ...prev, [u.id]: e.target.value }))}
-                      onBlur={e => saveExpected(u.id, e.target.value)}
-                      slotProps={{ inputLabel: { shrink: true }, htmlInput: { min: 0, step: 10 } }}
-                      sx={{ width: 150, '& .MuiInputBase-input': { fontSize: '0.72rem', py: 0.5 } }}
-                    />
-                    {suggestion != null && (
-                      <Button
-                        size="small"
-                        onClick={() => { setExpectedDraft(prev => ({ ...prev, [u.id]: String(suggestion) })); saveExpected(u.id, String(suggestion)) }}
-                        sx={{ textTransform: 'none', fontSize: '0.68rem', color: DS_PRE_MARKET.accent }}
-                      >
-                        Vorschlag übernehmen
-                      </Button>
-                    )}
-                  </Box>
-                </Box>
-              )
-            })()}
 
             {/* Inline editor (shared) */}
             <Collapse in={editing === u.id}>

src/hooks/useAI.ts

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import { useMutation, useQuery } from '@tanstack/react-query'
 import { aiService, parseListingText } from '../services/aiService'
-import type { OfferEmailPayload, FitOutAdviceInput } from '../services/aiService'
+import type { OfferEmailPayload, FitOutAdviceInput, PreMarketRentInput } from '../services/aiService'
 
 export function useParseNeed() {
   return useMutation({
@@ -34,3 +34,12 @@ export function useFitOutAdvice(input: FitOutAdviceInput | null) {
     staleTime: Infinity,
   })
 }
+
+export function usePreMarketRentRecommendation(input: PreMarketRentInput | null) {
+  return useQuery({
+    queryKey: ['preMarketRent', input],
+    queryFn: () => aiService.recommendPreMarketRent(input!),
+    enabled: !!input && !!input.city,
+    staleTime: Infinity,
+  })
+}

src/services/ai/IAIService.ts

@@ -176,6 +176,27 @@ export interface FitOutAdvice {
   estimatedNetInvestment: string
 }
 
+// ── Pre-market rent recommendation ─────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface PreMarketRentInput {
+  city: string
+  assetType: string
+  areaSqm: number
+  currentRentPerSqm: number
+  availableFrom?: string   // ISO — Pre-Market liegt in der Zukunft
+}
+
+export interface PreMarketRentRecommendation {
+  recommendedPerSqm: number
+  rangeMinPerSqm: number
+  rangeMaxPerSqm: number
+  verdict: 'UNDERPRICED' | 'FAIR' | 'AMBITIOUS'   // Bewertung des heutigen Preises
+  deltaVsCurrentPct: number                        // Empfehlung vs. heutiger Preis
+  drivers: string[]                                // Vergleichsmiete, Angebot, Nachfrage, Trend …
+  rationale: string
+  confidence: 'LOW' | 'MEDIUM' | 'HIGH'
+}
+
 // ── Legacy types (kept for backward compatibility) ────────────────────────────
 
 export interface CriteriaExtractionResult {
@@ -220,6 +241,9 @@ export interface IAIService {
   // Fit-out investment advice (demand side)
   generateFitOutAdvice(input: FitOutAdviceInput): Promise<AIResponse<FitOutAdvice>>
 
+  // Pre-market rent recommendation (supply side) — based on regional comparables, supply & demand
+  recommendPreMarketRent(input: PreMarketRentInput): Promise<AIResponse<PreMarketRentRecommendation>>
+
   // Legacy methods
   extractCriteria(input: string): Promise<AIResponse<CriteriaExtractionResult>>
   generateFollowUp(partialNeed: Partial<CreateNeedInput>): Promise<AIResponse<string[]>>

src/services/ai/backend/BackendAIService.ts

@@ -57,6 +57,8 @@ import type {
   MarketSignalClassification,
   FitOutAdviceInput,
   FitOutAdvice,
+  PreMarketRentInput,
+  PreMarketRentRecommendation,
 } from '../IAIService'
 import { ServiceErrorCode } from '../../types'
 import { AppError } from '../../errors'
@@ -82,6 +84,7 @@ import { buildDecisionBriefPrompt } from '../prompts/decisionBriefPrompt'
 import { buildDataQualityPrompt } from '../prompts/dataQualityPrompt'
 import { buildMarketSignalPrompt } from '../prompts/marketSignalPrompt'
 import { MockAIService } from '../mock/MockAIService'
+import { getCityIntelligence, getMarketRent } from '../../../lib/locationIntelligence'
 
 // ── Config ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
@@ -606,6 +609,41 @@ Bitte analysiere die Situation und empfiehl die beste Option für den Mieter.`
     }, () => MockAIService.generateFitOutAdvice(input))
   },
 
+  // ── recommendPreMarketRent ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
+  recommendPreMarketRent(input: PreMarketRentInput): Promise<AIResponse<PreMarketRentRecommendation>> {
+    return withFallback('recommendPreMarketRent', async () => {
+      const intel = getCityIntelligence(input.city)
+      const comp = getMarketRent(input.city, input.assetType)
+      const system = `Du bist Schweizer Gewerbeimmobilien-Marktanalyst. Empfiehl einen Pre-Market-Mietpreis (CHF/m²/Jahr) auf Basis regionaler Vergleichsmieten, Angebot (Leerstand) und Nachfrage. Antworte als JSON:
+{
+  "recommendedPerSqm": number,
+  "rangeMinPerSqm": number,
+  "rangeMaxPerSqm": number,
+  "verdict": "UNDERPRICED" | "FAIR" | "AMBITIOUS",
+  "deltaVsCurrentPct": number,
+  "drivers": ["kurze Treiber auf Deutsch"],
+  "rationale": "2-3 Sätze Begründung auf Deutsch",
+  "confidence": "LOW" | "MEDIUM" | "HIGH"
+}`
+      const user = `Stadt: ${input.city}
+Nutzung: ${input.assetType}
+Fläche: ${input.areaSqm} m²
+Heutiger Preis: CHF ${input.currentRentPerSqm}/m²
+Vergleichsmiete (Median): ${comp ?? 'unbekannt'}
+Leerstand: ${intel?.vacancyRatePct ?? '?'}%
+Nachfrage: ${intel?.demandStrength ?? '?'}
+Miettrend 12M: ${intel?.rentTrend12m ?? '?'}%
+Ø Vermietungsdauer: ${intel?.avgDaysOnMarket ?? '?'} Tage`
+      const raw = await chat(system, user)
+      const json = extractJSON<PreMarketRentRecommendation>(raw)
+      if (!json || typeof json.recommendedPerSqm !== 'number') {
+        const fb = await MockAIService.recommendPreMarketRent(input)
+        return { ...fb, provenance: makeProvenance('mock', true, false, { fallbackReason: json ? 'schema_validation' : 'json_parse' }) }
+      }
+      return { data: json, provenance: makeProvenance('ai', false, true) }
+    }, () => MockAIService.recommendPreMarketRent(input))
+  },
+
   // ── Legacy: extractCriteria ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
   extractCriteria(input: string): Promise<AIResponse<CriteriaExtractionResult>> {
     return withFallback('extractCriteria', async () => {

src/services/ai/mock/MockAIService.ts

@@ -12,12 +12,15 @@ import type {
   MarketSignalClassification,
   FitOutAdviceInput,
   FitOutAdvice,
+  PreMarketRentInput,
+  PreMarketRentRecommendation,
 } from '../IAIService'
 import { mockProvenance } from '../IAIService'
 import { aiTraceStore } from '../tracing'
 import { mockParseNeed } from './needParser'
 import { buildComparisonSummary } from './compareBuilder'
 import { buildMockDecisionBrief } from './decisionBrief'
+import { getCityIntelligence, getMarketRent } from '../../../lib/locationIntelligence'
 
 const SIMULATED_DELAY = { fast: 300, medium: 600, slow: 1800 }
 const delay = (ms: number) => new Promise(r => setTimeout(r, ms))
@@ -338,6 +341,71 @@ export const MockAIService: IAIService = {
       return { data, provenance: mockProvenance() }
     }),
 
+  // ── recommendPreMarketRent ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
+  recommendPreMarketRent: (input: PreMarketRentInput) =>
+    traceMock('recommendPreMarketRent', async () => {
+      await delay(SIMULATED_DELAY.fast)
+      const intel = getCityIntelligence(input.city)
+      const comp = getMarketRent(input.city, input.assetType)
+      const current = input.currentRentPerSqm
+      const ASSET_LABELS: Record<string, string> = { OFFICE: 'Bürofläche', LOGISTICS: 'Logistikfläche', LIGHT_INDUSTRIAL: 'Gewerbefläche', RETAIL: 'Retailfläche', PRODUCTION: 'Produktionsfläche' }
+      const assetLabel = ASSET_LABELS[input.assetType] ?? 'Fläche'
+
+      // Ohne regionale Vergleichsdaten: nur grobe Schätzung, niedrige Konfidenz
+      if (!intel || comp == null) {
+        const rec = Math.round(current * 1.02)
+        const data: PreMarketRentRecommendation = {
+          recommendedPerSqm: rec, rangeMinPerSqm: Math.round(rec * 0.93), rangeMaxPerSqm: Math.round(rec * 1.07),
+          verdict: 'FAIR', deltaVsCurrentPct: 0,
+          drivers: ['Keine regionalen Vergleichsdaten verfügbar'],
+          rationale: 'Keine ausreichenden Marktdaten für diese Region — Empfehlung beruht auf dem heutigen Preis.',
+          confidence: 'LOW',
+        }
+        return { data, provenance: mockProvenance() }
+      }
+
+      // Angebot/Nachfrage-Anpassung auf die regionale Vergleichsmiete
+      let adj = 0
+      if (intel.vacancyRatePct < 2.5) adj += 0.06
+      else if (intel.vacancyRatePct < 4) adj += 0.02
+      else if (intel.vacancyRatePct > 5.5) adj -= 0.06
+      else if (intel.vacancyRatePct > 4.5) adj -= 0.03
+      adj += { VERY_HIGH: 0.06, HIGH: 0.03, MEDIUM: 0, LOW: -0.05 }[intel.demandStrength]
+      if (intel.avgDaysOnMarket < 35) adj += 0.02
+      else if (intel.avgDaysOnMarket > 75) adj -= 0.03
+      const trendFwd = intel.rentTrend12m / 100   // Pre-Market liegt in der Zukunft → Trend vorwärts
+
+      const recommended = Math.round(comp * (1 + adj + trendFwd))
+      const rangeMin = Math.round(recommended * 0.93)
+      const rangeMax = Math.round(recommended * 1.07)
+      const deltaVsCurrentPct = Math.round(((recommended - current) / current) * 100)
+      const verdict: PreMarketRentRecommendation['verdict'] =
+        deltaVsCurrentPct >= 6 ? 'UNDERPRICED' : deltaVsCurrentPct <= -6 ? 'AMBITIOUS' : 'FAIR'
+
+      const supplyLabel = intel.vacancyRatePct < 3 ? 'sehr knappes Angebot' : intel.vacancyRatePct > 5 ? 'entspanntes Angebot' : 'ausgeglichenes Angebot'
+      const demandLabel = { VERY_HIGH: 'sehr hohe Nachfrage', HIGH: 'hohe Nachfrage', MEDIUM: 'mittlere Nachfrage', LOW: 'schwache Nachfrage' }[intel.demandStrength]
+      const drivers = [
+        `Vergleichsmiete Region: CHF ${comp}/m²`,
+        `Leerstand ${intel.vacancyRatePct}% (${supplyLabel})`,
+        demandLabel,
+        `Miettrend ${intel.rentTrend12m >= 0 ? '+' : ''}${intel.rentTrend12m}% (12 M)`,
+        `Ø Vermietungsdauer ${intel.avgDaysOnMarket} Tage`,
+      ]
+      const verdictText =
+        verdict === 'UNDERPRICED' ? `Ihr heutiger Preis (CHF ${current}/m²) liegt ${Math.abs(deltaVsCurrentPct)}% unter der Empfehlung — klarer Spielraum nach oben.`
+        : verdict === 'AMBITIOUS' ? `Ihr heutiger Preis liegt ${Math.abs(deltaVsCurrentPct)}% über der Markteinschätzung — ambitioniert.`
+        : 'Ihr heutiger Preis ist marktgerecht.'
+      const rationale = `Auf Basis vergleichbarer ${assetLabel} in ${input.city} (Median CHF ${comp}/m²), ${supplyLabel} und ${demandLabel}. Empfehlung für Pre-Market: CHF ${recommended}/m² (CHF ${rangeMin}–${rangeMax}). ${verdictText}`
+      const confidence: PreMarketRentRecommendation['confidence'] =
+        intel.demandStrength === 'LOW' || intel.avgDaysOnMarket > 75 ? 'MEDIUM' : 'HIGH'
+
+      const data: PreMarketRentRecommendation = {
+        recommendedPerSqm: recommended, rangeMinPerSqm: rangeMin, rangeMaxPerSqm: rangeMax,
+        verdict, deltaVsCurrentPct, drivers, rationale, confidence,
+      }
+      return { data, provenance: mockProvenance() }
+    }),
+
   // Legacy methods
   extractCriteria: (_input: string) =>
     traceMock('extractCriteria', async () => ({

src/services/aiService.ts

@@ -24,5 +24,7 @@ export type {
   MarketSignalClassification,
   FitOutAdvice,
   FitOutAdviceInput,
+  PreMarketRentInput,
+  PreMarketRentRecommendation,
 } from './ai/IAIService'
 export { parseListingText } from './ai/mock/listingParser'