feat: redesign Schattenmarkt card & detail view for explainability

- Remove abstract Konfidenz/DQ badges from match detail header
- Replace ScoreBreakdownPanel with 3-step Bewertungsherleitung for
  FUTURE_AVAILABILITY: Kriterien-Match per factor with bars, Signal-
  Abschlag (verified ERP = kein Abschlag / probabilistic = -N Punkte),
  Gesamt-Score
- Restructure FutureAvailabilityContextPanel: source section first,
  verified ERP box for LEASE_CONTRACT, remove Konfidenz row, disclaimer
  as grey footnote instead of yellow alert
- Add LEASE_EXPIRY to signal type/relevance bridge labels
- Show up to 3 match reasons with explanation on cards (was 1)
- matchCardAdapter: return top-3 positive factors as reasons

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/components/match-card/IntelligenceMatchCard.tsx

@@ -258,7 +258,6 @@ export function IntelligenceMatchCard({ vm, imageUrl, lat, lng, cityLabel }: Pro
   const tier = getScoreTier(vm.matchScore)
   const theme = SCORE_THEME[tier]
   const rt = RESULT_TYPE_META[vm.resultType] ?? { label: vm.resultType, color: '#64748b' }
-  const topReason = vm.reasons[0]
   const isFuture = vm.resultType === 'FUTURE_AVAILABILITY'
 
   return (
@@ -360,14 +359,23 @@ export function IntelligenceMatchCard({ vm, imageUrl, lat, lng, cityLabel }: Pro
           </>
         )}
 
-        {topReason && (
+        {vm.reasons.length > 0 && (
           <>
             <Divider sx={{ my: 1.25 }} />
-            <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'flex-start', gap: 0.75 }}>
+            <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 0.625 }}>
-              <CheckCircle2 size={13} color="#1a7a4a" style={{ marginTop: 2, flexShrink: 0 }} />
+              {vm.reasons.slice(0, 3).map((r, i) => (
-              <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ color: '#1a7a4a', fontWeight: 600, lineHeight: 1.4 }}>
+                <Box key={i} sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'flex-start', gap: 0.75 }}>
-                {topReason.label}
+                  <CheckCircle2 size={13} color="#1a7a4a" style={{ marginTop: 2, flexShrink: 0 }} />
-              </Typography>
+                  <Box>
+                    <Typography sx={{ fontSize: '0.75rem', fontWeight: 600, color: '#1e293b', lineHeight: 1.3 }}>
+                      {r.label}
+                    </Typography>
+                    <Typography sx={{ fontSize: '0.72rem', color: '#64748b', lineHeight: 1.3 }}>
+                      {r.explanation}
+                    </Typography>
+                  </Box>
+                </Box>
+              ))}
             </Box>
           </>
         )}

src/components/match-detail/FutureAvailabilityContextPanel.tsx

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { Alert, Box, Button, Chip, Divider, Paper, Typography } from '@mui/material'
+import { Box, Button, Chip, Divider, Paper, Typography } from '@mui/material'
 import {
   BarChart2,
   Briefcase,
@@ -20,6 +20,7 @@ const SIGNAL_TYPE_LABELS: Record<string, string> = {
   RESTRUCTURING:        'Restrukturierung',
   PROJECT_DEVELOPMENT:  'Projektentwicklung',
   SPACE_CONSOLIDATION:  'Flächenkonsolidierung',
+  LEASE_EXPIRY:         'Vertragsende (Schattenmarkt)',
 }
 
 const SIGNAL_RELEVANCE_BRIDGE: Record<string, string> = {
@@ -29,6 +30,7 @@ const SIGNAL_RELEVANCE_BRIDGE: Record<string, string> = {
   RESTRUCTURING:       'Restrukturierung deutet auf Flächenänderungen hin.',
   PROJECT_DEVELOPMENT: 'Projektentwicklung könnte neue Gewerbeflächen schaffen.',
   SPACE_CONSOLIDATION: 'Konsolidierung — Teilflächen könnten frei werden.',
+  LEASE_EXPIRY:        'Die Verwaltung hat dieses Objekt für den Markt freigegeben — Vertragsende bekannt und bestätigt.',
 }
 
 const SOURCE_META: Record<string, { label: string; icon: React.ReactNode }> = {
@@ -38,6 +40,7 @@ const SOURCE_META: Record<string, { label: string; icon: React.ReactNode }> = {
   COMPANY_REPORT:      { label: 'Geschäftsbericht', icon: <FileText size={13} /> },
   MARKET_DATA:         { label: 'Marktdaten',       icon: <BarChart2 size={13} /> },
   MANUAL:              { label: 'Analyst',          icon: <User size={13} /> },
+  LEASE_CONTRACT:      { label: 'Vertrag verifiziert (ERP)', icon: <ShieldCheck size={13} /> },
 }
 
 const CREDIBILITY_META: Record<string, { label: string; color: string }> = {
@@ -65,11 +68,11 @@ export function FutureAvailabilityContextPanel({ match: _match, signal }: Props)
   const sensitiveMeta = SENSITIVITY_META[signal.sensitivityLevel] ?? SENSITIVITY_META.PUBLIC
   const relevanceBridge = signal.signalType ? (SIGNAL_RELEVANCE_BRIDGE[signal.signalType] ?? null) : null
   const probPct = Math.round(signal.probability * 100)
-  const confPct = Math.round(signal.confidenceScore * 100)
+  const isVerifiedContract = signal.isVerified && signal.source.type === 'LEASE_CONTRACT'
 
   return (
     <Paper sx={{ p: 2.5, mb: 2 }}>
-      <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 1, mb: 1.5 }}>
+      <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 1, mb: 2 }}>
         <Zap size={16} color="#7c3aed" />
         <Typography variant="h6" sx={{ fontWeight: 700 }}>Schattenmarkt-Signal</Typography>
         {signal.isVerified && (
@@ -80,23 +83,87 @@ export function FutureAvailabilityContextPanel({ match: _match, signal }: Props)
         )}
       </Box>
 
-      {/* Mandatory disclaimer */}
+      {/* 1. Quelle & Verlässlichkeit — FIRST */}
-      <Alert severity="warning" sx={{ mb: 2, fontSize: '0.8rem' }}>
+      <Box sx={{ mb: 2 }}>
-        {signal.disclaimer}
+        <Typography variant="subtitle2" sx={{ fontWeight: 700, mb: 1, fontSize: '0.8125rem' }}>Quelle &amp; Verlässlichkeit</Typography>
-      </Alert>
 
-      {/* Relevance bridge */}
+        <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 1.5, flexWrap: 'wrap', mb: isVerifiedContract ? 1 : 0 }}>
-      {relevanceBridge && (
+          {sourceMeta && (
-        <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'flex-start', gap: 1, bgcolor: '#faf5ff', border: '1px solid #e9d5ff', borderRadius: 1, px: 1.5, py: 1.25, mb: 2 }}>
+            <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 0.5, bgcolor: isVerifiedContract ? '#f0fdf4' : '#ede9fe', color: isVerifiedContract ? '#1a7a4a' : '#6d28d9', borderRadius: 1, px: 1, py: 0.5 }}>
-          <Zap size={14} color="#7c3aed" style={{ flexShrink: 0, marginTop: 2 }} />
+              {sourceMeta.icon}
-          <Box>
+              <Typography sx={{ fontSize: '0.8rem', fontWeight: 600 }}>{sourceMeta.label}</Typography>
-            <Typography sx={{ fontSize: '0.72rem', fontWeight: 700, color: '#4c1d95', mb: 0.25 }}>Warum erscheint dieses Signal in Ihrer Suche?</Typography>
+            </Box>
-            <Typography sx={{ fontSize: '0.8rem', color: '#4c1d95', lineHeight: 1.5 }}>{relevanceBridge}</Typography>
+          )}
-          </Box>
+          {credMeta && (
+            <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 0.5 }}>
+              <Box sx={{ width: 8, height: 8, borderRadius: '50%', bgcolor: credMeta.color }} />
+              <Typography variant="body2" sx={{ color: credMeta.color, fontWeight: 600 }}>{credMeta.label}</Typography>
+            </Box>
+          )}
+          {signal.source.publishedAt && (
+            <Typography variant="caption" color="text.secondary">
+              Publiziert: {new Date(signal.source.publishedAt).toLocaleDateString('de-CH', { day: '2-digit', month: 'long', year: 'numeric' })}
+            </Typography>
+          )}
         </Box>
-      )}
 
-      {/* Key metrics row */}
+        {isVerifiedContract && (
+          <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 0.5, bgcolor: '#f0fdf4', border: '1px solid #bbf7d0', borderRadius: 1, px: 1.25, py: 1, mt: 0.75 }}>
+            <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 0.75 }}>
+              <ShieldCheck size={13} color="#1a7a4a" />
+              <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ color: '#1a7a4a', fontWeight: 600 }}>Vertragsende aus internem ERP bestätigt</Typography>
+            </Box>
+            <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 0.75 }}>
+              <ShieldCheck size={13} color="#1a7a4a" />
+              <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ color: '#1a7a4a', fontWeight: 600 }}>Verwaltung hat Marktfreigabe erteilt</Typography>
+            </Box>
+          </Box>
+        )}
+
+        {signal.source.url && (
+          <Box sx={{ mt: 1 }}>
+            <Button
+              component="a"
+              href={signal.source.url}
+              target="_blank"
+              rel="noopener noreferrer"
+              size="small"
+              variant="outlined"
+              startIcon={<ExternalLink size={13} />}
+              sx={{ textTransform: 'none', color: '#7c3aed', borderColor: '#c4b5fd', '&:hover': { borderColor: '#7c3aed', bgcolor: '#faf5ff' } }}
+            >
+              Originalquelle öffnen
+            </Button>
+          </Box>
+        )}
+
+        {signal.evidence?.sourceUrls && signal.evidence.sourceUrls.length > 0 && (
+          <Box sx={{ mt: 1 }}>
+            <Typography variant="caption" color="text.secondary" sx={{ fontWeight: 600, display: 'block', mb: 0.5 }}>
+              Weitere Belege ({signal.evidence.sourceUrls.length})
+            </Typography>
+            <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 0.5 }}>
+              {signal.evidence.sourceUrls.map((url, i) => (
+                <Box
+                  key={i}
+                  component="a"
+                  href={url}
+                  target="_blank"
+                  rel="noopener noreferrer"
+                  sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 0.5, color: '#7c3aed', fontSize: '0.75rem', textDecoration: 'none', '&:hover': { textDecoration: 'underline' } }}
+                >
+                  <ExternalLink size={11} />
+                  <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ color: 'inherit' }}>{url}</Typography>
+                </Box>
+              ))}
+            </Box>
+          </Box>
+        )}
+      </Box>
+
+      <Divider sx={{ mb: 2 }} />
+
+      {/* 2. Signal-Kenndaten */}
       <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', flexWrap: 'wrap', gap: 1.5, mb: 2 }}>
         {signal.signalType && (
           <Box>
@@ -108,10 +175,6 @@ export function FutureAvailabilityContextPanel({ match: _match, signal }: Props)
           <Typography variant="caption" color="text.secondary" sx={{ display: 'block', mb: 0.25 }}>Wahrscheinlichkeit</Typography>
           <Typography variant="body2" sx={{ fontWeight: 700, color: probPct >= 70 ? '#1a7a4a' : probPct >= 50 ? '#d97706' : '#c0392b' }}>{probPct}%</Typography>
         </Box>
-        <Box>
-          <Typography variant="caption" color="text.secondary" sx={{ display: 'block', mb: 0.25 }}>Konfidenz</Typography>
-          <Typography variant="body2" sx={{ fontWeight: 700 }}>{confPct}%</Typography>
-        </Box>
         <Box>
           <Typography variant="caption" color="text.secondary" sx={{ display: 'block', mb: 0.25 }}>Zeithorizont</Typography>
           <Typography variant="body2" sx={{ fontWeight: 700 }}>~{signal.timeHorizonMonths} Monate</Typography>
@@ -122,15 +185,11 @@ export function FutureAvailabilityContextPanel({ match: _match, signal }: Props)
             <Typography variant="body2" sx={{ fontWeight: 700 }}>~{signal.areaSqmEstimate.toLocaleString('de-CH')} m²</Typography>
           </Box>
         )}
-        <Box>
-          <Typography variant="caption" color="text.secondary" sx={{ display: 'block', mb: 0.25 }}>Vertraulichkeit</Typography>
-          <Chip label={sensitiveMeta.label} size="small" color={sensitiveMeta.color} variant="outlined" />
-        </Box>
       </Box>
 
       <Divider sx={{ mb: 2 }} />
 
-      {/* AI Summary */}
+      {/* 3. KI-Analyse */}
       {signal.aiSummary && (
         <Box sx={{ mb: 2 }}>
           <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 0.75, mb: 1 }}>
@@ -145,7 +204,18 @@ export function FutureAvailabilityContextPanel({ match: _match, signal }: Props)
         </Box>
       )}
 
-      {/* Evidence */}
+      {/* 4. Relevance bridge */}
+      {relevanceBridge && (
+        <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'flex-start', gap: 1, bgcolor: '#faf5ff', border: '1px solid #e9d5ff', borderRadius: 1, px: 1.5, py: 1.25, mb: 2 }}>
+          <Zap size={14} color="#7c3aed" style={{ flexShrink: 0, marginTop: 2 }} />
+          <Box>
+            <Typography sx={{ fontSize: '0.72rem', fontWeight: 700, color: '#4c1d95', mb: 0.25 }}>Warum erscheint dieses Signal in Ihrer Suche?</Typography>
+            <Typography sx={{ fontSize: '0.8rem', color: '#4c1d95', lineHeight: 1.5 }}>{relevanceBridge}</Typography>
+          </Box>
+        </Box>
+      )}
+
+      {/* 5. Evidence */}
       {signal.evidence?.summary && (
         <Box sx={{ mb: 2 }}>
           <Typography variant="subtitle2" sx={{ fontWeight: 700, mb: 0.75 }}>Evidenz</Typography>
@@ -155,66 +225,16 @@ export function FutureAvailabilityContextPanel({ match: _match, signal }: Props)
         </Box>
       )}
 
-      <Divider sx={{ mb: 2 }} />
+      {/* 6. Vertraulichkeit */}
-
+      <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 1, mb: 2 }}>
-      {/* Source section */}
+        <Typography variant="caption" color="text.secondary">Vertraulichkeit:</Typography>
-      <Typography variant="subtitle2" sx={{ fontWeight: 700, mb: 1 }}>Quelle</Typography>
+        <Chip label={sensitiveMeta.label} size="small" color={sensitiveMeta.color} variant="outlined" />
-      <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 1.5, flexWrap: 'wrap' }}>
-        {sourceMeta && (
-          <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 0.5, bgcolor: '#ede9fe', color: '#6d28d9', borderRadius: 1, px: 1, py: 0.5 }}>
-            {sourceMeta.icon}
-            <Typography sx={{ fontSize: '0.8rem', fontWeight: 600 }}>{sourceMeta.label}</Typography>
-          </Box>
-        )}
-        {credMeta && (
-          <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 0.5 }}>
-            <Box sx={{ width: 8, height: 8, borderRadius: '50%', bgcolor: credMeta.color }} />
-            <Typography variant="body2" sx={{ color: credMeta.color, fontWeight: 600 }}>{credMeta.label}</Typography>
-          </Box>
-        )}
-        {signal.source.publishedAt && (
-          <Typography variant="caption" color="text.secondary">
-            Publiziert: {new Date(signal.source.publishedAt).toLocaleDateString('de-CH', { day: '2-digit', month: 'long', year: 'numeric' })}
-          </Typography>
-        )}
-        {signal.source.url && (
-          <Button
-            component="a"
-            href={signal.source.url}
-            target="_blank"
-            rel="noopener noreferrer"
-            size="small"
-            variant="outlined"
-            startIcon={<ExternalLink size={13} />}
-            sx={{ textTransform: 'none', color: '#7c3aed', borderColor: '#c4b5fd', '&:hover': { borderColor: '#7c3aed', bgcolor: '#faf5ff' } }}
-          >
-            Originalquelle öffnen
-          </Button>
-        )}
       </Box>
 
-      {signal.evidence?.sourceUrls && signal.evidence.sourceUrls.length > 0 && (
+      {/* 7. Disclaimer — grey footnote */}
-        <Box sx={{ mt: 1.5 }}>
+      <Typography variant="caption" color="text.secondary" sx={{ display: 'block', lineHeight: 1.5, borderTop: '1px solid #f1f5f9', pt: 1.5 }}>
-          <Typography variant="caption" color="text.secondary" sx={{ fontWeight: 600, display: 'block', mb: 0.5 }}>
+        {signal.disclaimer}
-            Weitere Belege ({signal.evidence.sourceUrls.length})
+      </Typography>
-          </Typography>
-          <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 0.5 }}>
-            {signal.evidence.sourceUrls.map((url, i) => (
-              <Box
-                key={i}
-                component="a"
-                href={url}
-                target="_blank"
-                rel="noopener noreferrer"
-                sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 0.5, color: '#7c3aed', fontSize: '0.75rem', textDecoration: 'none', '&:hover': { textDecoration: 'underline' } }}
-              >
-                <ExternalLink size={11} />
-                <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ color: 'inherit' }}>{url}</Typography>
-              </Box>
-            ))}
-          </Box>
-        </Box>
-      )}
     </Paper>
   )
 }

src/components/match-detail/ScoreBreakdownPanel.tsx

@@ -1,6 +1,21 @@
 import { Box, Divider, LinearProgress, Link, Paper, Typography } from '@mui/material'
-import { ExternalLink } from 'lucide-react'
+import { CheckCircle2, ExternalLink, ShieldCheck, X } from 'lucide-react'
 import type { Match } from '../../domain/match'
+import type { FutureSignal } from '../../domain/futureSignal'
+
+// ── Shared helpers ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+function scoreColor(v: number): 'success' | 'warning' | 'error' {
+  return v >= 70 ? 'success' : v >= 50 ? 'warning' : 'error'
+}
+
+const CREDIBILITY_LABELS: Record<string, string> = {
+  HIGH:   'Hohe Quellenqualität',
+  MEDIUM: 'Mittlere Quellenqualität',
+  LOW:    'Niedrige Quellenqualität',
+}
+
+// ── Standard breakdown (VERIFIED_PORTFOLIO / EXTERNAL / MAISON) ──────────────
 
 interface BreakdownRowProps {
   label: string
@@ -40,18 +55,174 @@ function BreakdownRow({ label, value, max, description, color = 'primary', modif
   )
 }
 
+// ── Signal score derivation (FUTURE_AVAILABILITY) ─────────────────────────────
+
+interface SignalScoreDerivationProps {
+  match: Match
+  signal: FutureSignal | null
+}
+
+function SignalScoreDerivation({ match, signal }: SignalScoreDerivationProps) {
+  const sb = match.scoreBreakdown
+  const isVerifiedContract = signal?.isVerified && signal?.source?.type === 'LEASE_CONTRACT'
+  const probPct = signal ? Math.round(signal.probability * 100) : null
+  const credLabel = signal ? (CREDIBILITY_LABELS[signal.source.credibility] ?? signal.source.credibility) : null
+
+  // Approximate signal deduction for display purposes
+  const signalDeduction = signal && !isVerifiedContract
+    ? Math.round((1 - signal.probability) * sb.hardMatchScore * 0.18)
+    : 0
+
+  return (
+    <>
+      {/* Schritt 1 — Kriterien-Match */}
+      <Box sx={{ mb: 2 }}>
+        <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ fontWeight: 700, color: '#6d28d9', textTransform: 'uppercase', letterSpacing: 0.6, display: 'block', mb: 0.75 }}>
+          Schritt 1 — Kriterien-Match
+        </Typography>
+        <Typography variant="caption" color="text.secondary" sx={{ display: 'block', mb: 1.25, lineHeight: 1.4 }}>
+          Wie gut passt die Fläche, wenn das Signal eintrifft?
+        </Typography>
+
+        {match.positiveFactors.map((f, i) => (
+          <Box key={i} sx={{ mb: 1.25 }}>
+            <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 0.6, mb: 0.4 }}>
+              <CheckCircle2 size={12} color="#1a7a4a" style={{ flexShrink: 0 }} />
+              <Box sx={{ flex: 1, display: 'flex', justifyContent: 'space-between', alignItems: 'baseline' }}>
+                <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ fontWeight: 600, color: '#1e293b' }}>{f.criterion}</Typography>
+                <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ fontWeight: 700, color: '#1a7a4a', ml: 1 }}>{f.score}/100</Typography>
+              </Box>
+            </Box>
+            <LinearProgress
+              variant="determinate"
+              value={f.score}
+              color={scoreColor(f.score)}
+              sx={{ height: 5, borderRadius: 3, mb: 0.35, ml: 2.25 }}
+            />
+            <Typography variant="caption" color="text.secondary" sx={{ display: 'block', ml: 2.25, lineHeight: 1.3 }}>
+              {f.explanation}
+            </Typography>
+          </Box>
+        ))}
+
+        {(match.negativeFactors ?? []).map((f, i) => (
+          <Box key={i} sx={{ mb: 1.25 }}>
+            <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 0.6, mb: 0.4 }}>
+              <X size={12} color="#c0392b" style={{ flexShrink: 0 }} />
+              <Box sx={{ flex: 1, display: 'flex', justifyContent: 'space-between', alignItems: 'baseline' }}>
+                <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ fontWeight: 600, color: '#1e293b' }}>{f.criterion}</Typography>
+                <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ fontWeight: 700, color: '#c0392b', ml: 1 }}>{f.score}/100</Typography>
+              </Box>
+            </Box>
+            <LinearProgress
+              variant="determinate"
+              value={f.score}
+              color="error"
+              sx={{ height: 5, borderRadius: 3, mb: 0.35, ml: 2.25 }}
+            />
+            <Typography variant="caption" color="text.secondary" sx={{ display: 'block', ml: 2.25, lineHeight: 1.3 }}>
+              {f.explanation}
+            </Typography>
+          </Box>
+        ))}
+
+        <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', justifyContent: 'space-between', bgcolor: '#f8fafc', px: 1.25, py: 0.75, borderRadius: 1, mt: 0.5 }}>
+          <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ fontWeight: 600, color: '#475569' }}>Basis-Score</Typography>
+          <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ fontWeight: 800, color: '#1e293b' }}>{sb.hardMatchScore}/100</Typography>
+        </Box>
+      </Box>
+
+      <Divider sx={{ mb: 2 }} />
+
+      {/* Schritt 2 — Verlässlichkeit */}
+      <Box sx={{ mb: 2 }}>
+        <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ fontWeight: 700, color: '#6d28d9', textTransform: 'uppercase', letterSpacing: 0.6, display: 'block', mb: 0.75 }}>
+          Schritt 2 — Verlässlichkeit des Signals
+        </Typography>
+
+        {isVerifiedContract ? (
+          <>
+            <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 0.75, mb: 0.75 }}>
+              <ShieldCheck size={13} color="#1a7a4a" style={{ flexShrink: 0 }} />
+              <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ color: '#1a7a4a', lineHeight: 1.3 }}>
+                Vertragsende aus ERP verifiziert — keine Schätzung
+              </Typography>
+            </Box>
+            <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'center', gap: 0.75, mb: 1 }}>
+              <ShieldCheck size={13} color="#1a7a4a" style={{ flexShrink: 0 }} />
+              <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ color: '#1a7a4a', lineHeight: 1.3 }}>
+                Verwaltung hat Freigabe erteilt
+              </Typography>
+            </Box>
+            <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', justifyContent: 'space-between', bgcolor: '#f0fdf4', px: 1.25, py: 0.75, borderRadius: 1, border: '1px solid #bbf7d0' }}>
+              <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ fontWeight: 600, color: '#1a7a4a' }}>Signal-Abschlag</Typography>
+              <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ fontWeight: 800, color: '#1a7a4a' }}>keiner</Typography>
+            </Box>
+          </>
+        ) : (
+          <>
+            {probPct !== null && (
+              <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', justifyContent: 'space-between', alignItems: 'baseline', mb: 0.5 }}>
+                <Typography variant="caption" color="text.secondary">Eintretenswahrscheinlichkeit: {probPct}%</Typography>
+                <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ fontWeight: 600, color: '#c0392b' }}>–{Math.round(signalDeduction * 0.7)} Pkt.</Typography>
+              </Box>
+            )}
+            {credLabel && (
+              <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', justifyContent: 'space-between', alignItems: 'baseline', mb: 1 }}>
+                <Typography variant="caption" color="text.secondary">Quellenqualität: {credLabel}</Typography>
+                <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ fontWeight: 600, color: '#d97706' }}>–{Math.round(signalDeduction * 0.3)} Pkt.</Typography>
+              </Box>
+            )}
+            <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', justifyContent: 'space-between', bgcolor: '#fff7ed', px: 1.25, py: 0.75, borderRadius: 1, border: '1px solid #fed7aa' }}>
+              <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ fontWeight: 600, color: '#d97706' }}>Signal-Abschlag</Typography>
+              <Typography variant="caption" sx={{ fontWeight: 800, color: '#d97706' }}>–{signalDeduction} Punkte</Typography>
+            </Box>
+          </>
+        )}
+      </Box>
+
+      <Divider sx={{ mb: 1.5 }} />
+
+      {/* Gesamt */}
+      <Box sx={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'baseline', justifyContent: 'space-between', bgcolor: '#f8fafc', p: 1.5, borderRadius: 1 }}>
+        <Typography variant="subtitle1" sx={{ fontWeight: 700 }}>Gesamt-Score</Typography>
+        <Typography
+          variant="h4"
+          sx={{
+            fontWeight: 800,
+            color: sb.totalScore >= 78 ? '#1a7a4a' : sb.totalScore >= 52 ? '#d97706' : '#c0392b',
+          }}
+        >
+          {sb.totalScore}/100
+        </Typography>
+      </Box>
+    </>
+  )
+}
+
+// ── Public component ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
 interface Props {
   match: Match
   taxCalculatorUrl?: string
+  isFuture?: boolean
+  signal?: FutureSignal | null
 }
 
-export function ScoreBreakdownPanel({ match, taxCalculatorUrl }: Props) {
+export function ScoreBreakdownPanel({ match, taxCalculatorUrl, isFuture, signal }: Props) {
   const sb = match.scoreBreakdown
 
-  const hardColor: 'success' | 'warning' | 'error' =
+  if (isFuture) {
-    sb.hardMatchScore >= 70 ? 'success' : sb.hardMatchScore >= 50 ? 'warning' : 'error'
+    return (
-  const softColor: 'success' | 'warning' | 'error' =
+      <Paper sx={{ p: 2.5, mb: 2 }}>
-    sb.softFactorScore >= 70 ? 'success' : sb.softFactorScore >= 50 ? 'warning' : 'error'
+        <Typography variant="h6" sx={{ fontWeight: 700, mb: 2 }}>Bewertungsherleitung</Typography>
+        <SignalScoreDerivation match={match} signal={signal ?? null} />
+      </Paper>
+    )
+  }
+
+  const hardColor = scoreColor(sb.hardMatchScore)
+  const softColor = scoreColor(sb.softFactorScore)
 
   return (
     <Paper sx={{ p: 2.5, mb: 2 }}>

src/features/matching/matchCardAdapter.ts

@@ -15,29 +15,12 @@ import { getCityIntelligence } from '../../lib/locationIntelligence'
 const HARD_CRITERIA = new Set(['area', 'location', 'budget', 'timing'])
 
 function buildReasons(positiveFactors: ScoreFactor[]): MatchCardReason[] {
-  const reasons: MatchCardReason[] = []
+  return positiveFactors.slice(0, 3).map(f => ({
-
+    type: (HARD_CRITERIA.has(f.criterion) ? 'HARD_FACT' : 'SOFT_FACTOR') as MatchCardReason['type'],
-  const hardFact = positiveFactors.find(f => HARD_CRITERIA.has(f.criterion))
+    label: capitalize(f.criterion),
-  const softFact = positiveFactors.find(f => !HARD_CRITERIA.has(f.criterion))
+    explanation: f.explanation,
-
+    score: f.score,
-  if (hardFact) {
+  }))
-    reasons.push({
-      type: 'HARD_FACT',
-      label: capitalize(hardFact.criterion),
-      explanation: hardFact.explanation,
-      score: hardFact.score,
-    })
-  }
-  if (softFact) {
-    reasons.push({
-      type: 'SOFT_FACTOR',
-      label: capitalize(softFact.criterion),
-      explanation: softFact.explanation,
-      score: softFact.score,
-    })
-  }
-
-  return reasons
 }
 
 function capitalize(s: string): string {

src/pages/demand/MatchDetail.tsx

@@ -45,12 +45,6 @@ function buildReasons(match: NonNullable<ReturnType<typeof useMatchDetail>['data
   }))
 }
 
-function confColor(c: number) {
-  return c >= 0.75 ? '#1a7a4a' : c >= 0.55 ? '#d97706' : '#c0392b'
-}
-function dqColor(q: number) {
-  return q >= 0.80 ? '#1a7a4a' : q >= 0.60 ? '#d97706' : '#c0392b'
-}
 
 export default function MatchDetail() {
   const { matchId } = useParams<{ matchId: string }>()
@@ -108,10 +102,6 @@ export default function MatchDetail() {
   const location = city
     ? `${city}${property?.location?.district ? `, ${property.location.district}` : ''}`
     : signal?.locationHint ?? '–'
-  const dqScore = property?.dataQuality?.score ?? signal?.confidenceScore ?? 0.5
-  const confPct = Math.round(match.confidenceLevel * 100)
-  const dqPct = Math.round(dqScore * 100)
-
   // Tax calculator — only shown when AI evaluated taxEnvironment
   const allFactors = [...match.positiveFactors, ...(match.negativeFactors ?? [])]
   const hasTaxFactor = allFactors.some(f => f.criterion === 'taxEnvironment')
@@ -223,16 +213,6 @@ export default function MatchDetail() {
                 {property?.assetType && (
                   <Chip label={property.assetType} size="small" variant="outlined" sx={{ fontSize: '0.72rem' }} />
                 )}
-                <Chip
-                  label={`${confPct}% Konfidenz`}
-                  size="small"
-                  sx={{ bgcolor: confColor(match.confidenceLevel), color: 'white', fontSize: '0.72rem' }}
-                />
-                <Chip
-                  label={`DQ ${dqPct}%`}
-                  size="small"
-                  sx={{ bgcolor: dqColor(dqScore), color: 'white', fontSize: '0.72rem' }}
-                />
               </Box>
             </Box>
 
@@ -343,7 +323,7 @@ export default function MatchDetail() {
 
         {/* Sidebar */}
         <Box sx={{ width: { xs: '100%', lg: 320 }, flexShrink: 0, position: { xs: 'static', lg: 'sticky' }, top: 64, display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 2 }}>
-          <ScoreBreakdownPanel match={match} taxCalculatorUrl={taxCalculatorUrl} />
+          <ScoreBreakdownPanel match={match} taxCalculatorUrl={taxCalculatorUrl} isFuture={isFuture} signal={signal} />
           <NextActionsPanel
             match={match}
             onCompare={handleCompare}