fix(ai): realistic pre-market rent recommendation — annual units + anchor on current price

- getMarketRent now returns CHF/m²/YEAR (stored medians are monthly → ×12); fixes annual-vs-monthly mismatch that also affected MarketPricePanel and NegotiationInsightsPanel
- recommendPreMarketRent: anchor on the unit's current rent and adjust within a bounded ±15% by market momentum (vacancy=supply, demand strength, days-on-market, trend) instead of jumping to the city-wide (prime-skewed) median — no more "double the price" suggestions; median only used as a headroom check
- tests updated to annual market values

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/lib/__tests__/rentEstimate.test.ts

@@ -2,28 +2,28 @@ import { describe, it, expect } from 'vitest'
 import { estimateMarketRent, suggestFutureRent } from '../rentEstimate'
 
 describe('estimateMarketRent', () => {
+  // Zürich OFFICE median = 42/Monat → 504/Jahr (getMarketRent rechnet ×12)
   it('flags asking rent clearly above the city median as ABOVE', () => {
-    // Zürich OFFICE median = 42
+    const est = estimateMarketRent('Zürich', 'OFFICE', 600)
-    const est = estimateMarketRent('Zürich', 'OFFICE', 60)
     expect(est).not.toBeNull()
     expect(est!.verdict).toBe('ABOVE')
     expect(est!.deltaPct).toBeGreaterThan(5)
-    expect(est!.fairRentPerSqm).toBe(42)
+    expect(est!.fairRentPerSqm).toBe(504)
   })
 
   it('flags asking rent clearly below median as BELOW', () => {
-    const est = estimateMarketRent('Zürich', 'OFFICE', 30)
+    const est = estimateMarketRent('Zürich', 'OFFICE', 400)
     expect(est!.verdict).toBe('BELOW')
     expect(est!.deltaPct).toBeLessThan(-5)
   })
 
   it('treats near-median asking rent as AT (within ±5%)', () => {
-    const est = estimateMarketRent('Zürich', 'OFFICE', 43)
+    const est = estimateMarketRent('Zürich', 'OFFICE', 510)
     expect(est!.verdict).toBe('AT')
   })
 
   it('returns null for unknown city', () => {
-    expect(estimateMarketRent('Atlantis', 'OFFICE', 40)).toBeNull()
+    expect(estimateMarketRent('Atlantis', 'OFFICE', 480)).toBeNull()
   })
 
   it('suggestFutureRent indexes by the city rent trend', () => {

src/lib/locationIntelligence.ts

@@ -6,9 +6,9 @@ export interface CityIntelligence {
   purchasingPowerIndex: number    // Kaufkraft-Index (CH = 100)
   dominantIndustryClusters: string[]
   plannedInfrastructure: { project: string; timeline: string; impact: string }[]
-  medianRentOffice: number        // CHF/m² für Bürofläche
+  medianRentOffice: number        // CHF/m²/Monat (Bürofläche) — getMarketRent rechnet auf Jahr um
-  medianRentLogistics: number
+  medianRentLogistics: number     // CHF/m²/Monat
-  medianRentRetail: number
+  medianRentRetail: number        // CHF/m²/Monat
   avgDaysOnMarket: number         // Durchschnittliche Tage bis Vermietung
   demandStrength: 'LOW' | 'MEDIUM' | 'HIGH' | 'VERY_HIGH'
   taxIndexCanton: number          // Steuerindex 100 = CH-Mittel
@@ -137,13 +137,15 @@ export function getCityIntelligence(city: string): CityIntelligence | null {
   return key ? CITY_INTELLIGENCE[key] : null
 }
 
+/** Median-Marktmiete in CHF/m²/**Jahr** (Daten sind monatlich gespeichert → ×12), passend zu property.rentPricePerSqm. */
 export function getMarketRent(city: string, assetType: string): number | null {
   const intel = getCityIntelligence(city)
   if (!intel) return null
-  if (assetType === 'OFFICE') return intel.medianRentOffice
+  const monthly =
-  if (assetType === 'LOGISTICS' || assetType === 'LIGHT_INDUSTRIAL') return intel.medianRentLogistics
+    assetType === 'LOGISTICS' || assetType === 'LIGHT_INDUSTRIAL' ? intel.medianRentLogistics
-  if (assetType === 'RETAIL') return intel.medianRentRetail
+    : assetType === 'RETAIL' ? intel.medianRentRetail
-  return intel.medianRentOffice
+    : intel.medianRentOffice
+  return monthly * 12
 }
 
 // ── City coordinates (WGS84) ─────────────────────────────────────────────────

src/services/ai/mock/MockAIService.ts

@@ -364,38 +364,41 @@ export const MockAIService: IAIService = {
         return { data, provenance: mockProvenance() }
       }
 
-      // Angebot/Nachfrage-Anpassung auf die regionale Vergleichsmiete
+      // Empfehlung am HEUTIGEN Preis des Objekts verankert (realistisch) und nur begrenzt
-      let adj = 0
+      // nach Marktmomentum (Angebot/Nachfrage/Trend) angepasst — keine Sprünge auf den
-      if (intel.vacancyRatePct < 2.5) adj += 0.06
+      // stadtweiten Median (segment-grob). Vergleichsmiete dient nur als Spielraum-Check.
+      let adj = intel.rentTrend12m / 100   // Trend vorwärts (Pre-Market liegt in der Zukunft)
+      if (intel.vacancyRatePct < 2.5) adj += 0.04
       else if (intel.vacancyRatePct < 4) adj += 0.02
-      else if (intel.vacancyRatePct > 5.5) adj -= 0.06
+      else if (intel.vacancyRatePct > 5.5) adj -= 0.05
-      else if (intel.vacancyRatePct > 4.5) adj -= 0.03
+      else if (intel.vacancyRatePct > 4.5) adj -= 0.02
-      adj += { VERY_HIGH: 0.06, HIGH: 0.03, MEDIUM: 0, LOW: -0.05 }[intel.demandStrength]
+      adj += { VERY_HIGH: 0.05, HIGH: 0.025, MEDIUM: 0, LOW: -0.04 }[intel.demandStrength]
-      if (intel.avgDaysOnMarket < 35) adj += 0.02
+      if (intel.avgDaysOnMarket < 35) adj += 0.015
-      else if (intel.avgDaysOnMarket > 75) adj -= 0.03
+      else if (intel.avgDaysOnMarket > 75) adj -= 0.025
-      const trendFwd = intel.rentTrend12m / 100   // Pre-Market liegt in der Zukunft → Trend vorwärts
+      // Spielraum-Check: liegt der heutige Preis bereits über dem regionalen Marktband → kaum Luft nach oben
+      if (comp != null && current >= comp) adj = Math.min(adj, 0.02)
+      adj = Math.max(-0.10, Math.min(0.15, adj))   // realistischer Rahmen: −10 % … +15 %
 
-      const recommended = Math.round(comp * (1 + adj + trendFwd))
+      const recommended = Math.round(current * (1 + adj))
-      const rangeMin = Math.round(recommended * 0.93)
+      const rangeMin = Math.round(recommended * 0.95)
-      const rangeMax = Math.round(recommended * 1.07)
+      const rangeMax = Math.round(recommended * 1.05)
-      const deltaVsCurrentPct = Math.round(((recommended - current) / current) * 100)
+      const deltaVsCurrentPct = Math.round(adj * 100)
       const verdict: PreMarketRentRecommendation['verdict'] =
-        deltaVsCurrentPct >= 6 ? 'UNDERPRICED' : deltaVsCurrentPct <= -6 ? 'AMBITIOUS' : 'FAIR'
+        deltaVsCurrentPct >= 5 ? 'UNDERPRICED' : deltaVsCurrentPct <= -4 ? 'AMBITIOUS' : 'FAIR'
 
       const supplyLabel = intel.vacancyRatePct < 3 ? 'sehr knappes Angebot' : intel.vacancyRatePct > 5 ? 'entspanntes Angebot' : 'ausgeglichenes Angebot'
       const demandLabel = { VERY_HIGH: 'sehr hohe Nachfrage', HIGH: 'hohe Nachfrage', MEDIUM: 'mittlere Nachfrage', LOW: 'schwache Nachfrage' }[intel.demandStrength]
       const drivers = [
-        `Vergleichsmiete Region: CHF ${comp}/m²`,
         `Leerstand ${intel.vacancyRatePct}% (${supplyLabel})`,
         demandLabel,
         `Miettrend ${intel.rentTrend12m >= 0 ? '+' : ''}${intel.rentTrend12m}% (12 M)`,
         `Ø Vermietungsdauer ${intel.avgDaysOnMarket} Tage`,
       ]
       const verdictText =
-        verdict === 'UNDERPRICED' ? `Ihr heutiger Preis (CHF ${current}/m²) liegt ${Math.abs(deltaVsCurrentPct)}% unter der Empfehlung — klarer Spielraum nach oben.`
+        verdict === 'UNDERPRICED' ? `Marktumfeld lässt Spielraum nach oben (+${deltaVsCurrentPct}% ggü. heute).`
-        : verdict === 'AMBITIOUS' ? `Ihr heutiger Preis liegt ${Math.abs(deltaVsCurrentPct)}% über der Markteinschätzung — ambitioniert.`
+        : verdict === 'AMBITIOUS' ? `Marktumfeld eher schwächer (${deltaVsCurrentPct}% ggü. heute) — vorsichtig ansetzen.`
-        : 'Ihr heutiger Preis ist marktgerecht.'
+        : 'Heutiger Preis ist marktgerecht.'
-      const rationale = `Auf Basis vergleichbarer ${assetLabel} in ${input.city} (Median CHF ${comp}/m²), ${supplyLabel} und ${demandLabel}. Empfehlung für Pre-Market: CHF ${recommended}/m² (CHF ${rangeMin}–${rangeMax}). ${verdictText}`
+      const rationale = `${assetLabel} in ${input.city}: ${supplyLabel}, ${demandLabel}, Miettrend ${intel.rentTrend12m >= 0 ? '+' : ''}${intel.rentTrend12m}%. Empfehlung für Pre-Market: CHF ${recommended}/m² (CHF ${rangeMin}–${rangeMax}) — verankert am heutigen Preis CHF ${current}/m². ${verdictText}`
       const confidence: PreMarketRentRecommendation['confidence'] =
         intel.demandStrength === 'LOW' || intel.avgDaysOnMarket > 75 ? 'MEDIUM' : 'HIGH'